I am the sports editor for a website that provides gambling news and other information เว็บแทงบอล. I have many years of experience in gambling, journalism, and the study of mathematics. Do I consider myself a gambling expert or not? It’s possible.
Numerous so-called experts in gambling will give their information to help you ‘beat the bookie’, or make additional income from gambling. I won’t do it. I will just give you information on bookmakers, odds, and gambling that you can use (or forget) however you like.
The first thing we need to point out is that gambling can lead to a net loss for most people. This is precisely why so many bookmakers make so much money around the world.
Although bookmakers sometimes take huge hits, like when a favourite wins Grand National, they spread the risk so that they have markets that include margins. This ensures that they make a profit in the long-term and medium-long term. They just need to be sure they have the correct sums.
Before setting odds on a specific event, bookmakers first need to assess its probability of happening. The bookmakers use a variety of statistical models that draw on years and sometimes decades worth of data about the sport and its competitors. If sport were unpredictability, it would lose its appeal. The bookies often get it right, but they can be wrong sometimes because contests or matches are not in the conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Look at any sport, and you’ll find an occasion where the underdog wins. You can see two examples of situations where you could have gotten handsome odds against the underdog. For instance, Wimbledon beating Liverpool in 1988’s FA Cup Final. Or the USA defeating the USSR at ice skating in 1980 Olympics. It could have been a decent wedge.
The biggest bookmakers spend a lot time and money to ensure they have the right odds. This means they consider the event’s perceived probability and then add that extra bit to increase their profit margin. The odds that an event will occur would be two to one if it has a probability of 1/3. It is two to one that the event will occur.
A bookie would set these odds and eventually break even, provided their stats are accurate. They would instead set the odds at, for example, 6/4. They have created the margin to profit over time by having people bet on this selection. It’s the same idea as playing casino roulette.
So, how do you spot when bookmakers make mistakes? Although it is not easy, it is possible.
One method is to become proficient in mathematical modeling and build a model that includes all the variables that can affect the outcome of an incident. This strategy is not very effective because it cannot take into account the small details of human mind and emotions. The ability to hit a five-foot shot on St Andrews’ 18th hole is as much down as the golfer’s concentration as it is the weather and day of week. It is also possible for the maths to get very complicated.
Another option is to find your niche in sports. Bookmakers will focus their resources on events that bring them the most revenue, which are usually American football, horse racing and football (soccer). It is difficult to beat bookies while placing bets on Manchester United v Chelsea matches. If you are not married to one or more of the players, managers or coaches, the bookmaker who sets the odds will likely have more information than yours.
It is possible to win a competitive edge over bookies if you bet on non-league football, badminton, crown green bowls or badminton.
You have an edge in information terms. What should you do? Follow the value.
Value betting involves placing a wager on a selection at odds higher than the likelihood that an event will occur. You can value bet if you place an assessment of the probability that a certain non-league football club (Grimsby Town), will win their next football match as 1/33 or 33%. If you find a bookmaker who sets the odds at 3/1, this is a value betting opportunity. The odds of 3/1, minus the margin the bookie has added, suggest a probability that is 1/4 or 25%. Your now-informed opinion is that Grimsby’s odds are underrated. You therefore have an 8% margin.
As is often the situation, Grimsby might not win the match and fluff their lines. You could lose your bet. You will still make money if you continue to look for value bets. If you don’t, you will eventually lose. Simple.
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